Solving for 2017 – Neuberger Berman

Neuberger Berman’s “Solving for 2017” outlines the trends and themes that it believes will dominate the year ahead. It has been developed by the heads of Neuberger Berman’s four investment platforms – Joseph Amato (CIO of equities), Erik Knutzen (CIO of multi-asset class), Brad Tank (CIO of fixed income) and Tony Tutrone (CIO of alternatives).

They anticipate the listed 10 key themes will guide investment decisions in 2017:

1. The rise of nationalistic self-interest continues to upset the world order.
2. Central bank impact fades.
   
3. Real interest rates in the U.S. continue to push higher.
4. Credit still holds appeal.
5. Pro-growth Trump administration fuels outperformance of U.S. equities.
   
6. Alpha—and active managers able to generate it—may stage a comeback.
7. Economic orientation counts.
   
8. China risks remain significant.
   
9. Volatility can work for investors.
   
10. Private debt remains attractive.

The report also looks at the beginning of a new investment era:

“While Donald Trump’s victory was not the outcome expected by most of the Committee—or the markets—“surprise” may be too strong a term for it given the accelerating anti-establishment and anti-globalization trends we’ve noted across the developed world in recent months.

Though the June Brexit vote was perhaps the most notable pre-Trump example, developed markets in general have witnessed the rise of populist politics and politicians bent on upending the current world order, one in which developed country middle and lower-middle class citizens perceive themselves to be suffering at the expense of the elites and rising emerging countries.

In the weeks since Trump’s election we have already seen Italian voters defeat a referendum to reform that country’s constitution, effectively forcing the resignation of Prime Minister Renzi and calling into question Italy’s future in the euro zone. And with a slew of European elections and referenda looming over the next six months, we’ll soon learn if Trump’s ascendency represented the climax of such sentiment or merely an exclamation point within a still-unfolding narrative.”